COVID meatpacking disruption and wholesale beef
Processing capacity can dominate live-animal supply in short-horizon beef price shocks.
Learning record
Misses, restraint, and lessons.
Good forecasting improves by keeping lessons visible, not only wins.
African swine fever and China's pork prices
Large disease shocks in culturally central protein markets deserve high price-shock probabilities.
Avian flu and the 2015 egg price spike
Disease-driven layer losses can move egg prices faster than normal livestock production cycles.
Brazil frost and arabica coffee prices
Weather shocks in concentrated producer markets can reprice quickly; market benchmarks deserve high weight.
Specialty crop concentration can create extreme price sensitivity to regional weather and disease.
The model should reward restraint when crop-condition evidence stays broad-based and healthy.
Higher rates and farmland values in 2023
Farmland values are sticky; rate shocks need debt-stress confirmation before high collapse forecasts.
Suez blockage and agriculture shipping disruption
A severe shipping shock is not necessarily a long-duration ag disruption.
Russia's 2010 wheat export restriction
Export-restriction risk rises when crop stress meets domestic food-price politics.
2012 U.S. corn drought yield shock
National crop-collapse forecasts need broad geographic stress, not isolated weather fear.