Higher rates and farmland values in 2023

As of January 15, 2023, what was the probability average U.S. farmland values would decline at least 5% nominally during 2023 because of higher interest rates?

FoxCast

19%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.0357

FoxCast kept the probability low because farmland values tend to be sticky. Higher interest rates mattered, but a broad nominal decline needed more evidence of forced selling, weak farm income, or severe credit stress.

For lenders and operators, this case says not every rate shock immediately becomes a land-value crash. Land can stay supported even when financing gets harder, especially if farm balance sheets and buyer demand remain solid.

Reader takeaway: For lenders, higher rates are a warning light, not a complete forecast. FoxCast looks for confirmation from forced selling, borrower stress, weak income, or buyer withdrawal before treating land values as likely to fall broadly.