Avian flu and the 2015 egg price spike

As of May 15, 2015, what was the probability U.S. retail egg prices would rise at least 20% quarter over quarter by September 30, 2015 because of HPAI flock losses?

FoxCast

72%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.0790

FoxCast expected a major egg-price move because laying-hen losses directly reduce the supply of eggs available to the market. Eggs can reprice quickly when disease hits commercial layers because replacement takes time.

For food buyers and producers, the lesson is straightforward: disease losses in layers can affect prices much faster than many people expect. Watching flock loss data matters because it is an early warning before retail prices fully adjust.

Reader takeaway: For buyers, eggs are a reminder that biological replacement speed matters. If the affected animals cannot be replaced quickly, the price signal can arrive before the casual reader realizes the supply base has changed.