2012 U.S. corn drought yield shock

As of July 1, 2012, what was the probability U.S. corn yields would fall at least 15% below the prior-year yield by the 2012 harvest estimate?

FoxCast

68%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.1056

FoxCast assigned a high probability because the drought risk was broad enough to matter nationally, not just locally. A national yield shock needs stress across enough major growing areas to move the whole balance sheet.

For producers and grain elevators, this case shows why scale matters. A local weather issue can be serious, but a national corn shock requires evidence that the problem is spreading across the core production belt.