Superforecasting — Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Calibration, updating, decomposition, and the discipline of scoring.
Resources
Resources for forecasting-minded readers
A short reading shelf and a few practical habits for readers who want to think in probabilities without needing insider process notes.
Start with three books
Thinking in Bets — Annie Duke
Separating decision quality from outcome luck; using probabilities in real life.
Thinking in Systems — Donella H. Meadows
Feedback loops, delayed effects, and why “the obvious story” often fails.
FoxCast reading shelf (core list)
Expert Political Judgment — Philip E. Tetlock
Calibration, fox vs. hedgehog thinking, and forecasting humility.
Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman
Anchoring, substitution, availability, and overconfidence checks.
Noise — Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
Decision hygiene and reducing judgment variance.
The Signal and the Noise — Nate Silver
Separating signal from noise across complex systems.
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson
Indicators, assumptions checks, and structured reasoning.
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Cognitive traps in analysis and practical guardrails.
The Strategy of Conflict — Thomas C. Schelling
Deterrence, bargaining, escalation, and strategic interaction.
Arms and Influence — Thomas C. Schelling
Coercion and signaling under uncertainty.
War by Other Means — Robert D. Blackwill and Jennifer M. Harris
Geoeconomics, sanctions, and coercive economic statecraft.
The Revenge of Geography — Robert D. Kaplan
Chokepoints, terrain, and enduring constraints.
Prisoners of Geography — Tim Marshall
Accessible geography framing for public explanations.
The Black Swan — Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Tail risk, fragility, and model humility.
Antifragile — Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Stress, robustness, and system behavior under shock.
The Fifth Discipline — Peter M. Senge
Learning loops and organizational improvement.
The Changing World Order — Ray Dalio
Long-cycle framing to test (not assume) with scoreable questions.
The Fate of Rome — Kyle Harper
Compounding shocks across climate, disease, and institutions.
Practical habits (public-safe)
Write down the question and deadline
A forecast is only accountable if it can be checked later.
Name a base rate before reading the latest headline
Start from “how often does this happen?” then update as evidence changes.
Track one “what would change my mind?” trigger
Decision-relevant triggers prevent endless drifting and vague certainty.
Keep a small log of your biggest misses
Learning compounds when you revisit the misses, not just the wins.
Related FoxCast pages
Disclosure
FoxCast may add affiliate links later, but this page is currently just a plain public reading list and practice guide.