Scoring
How FoxCast scores forecasts.
FoxCast uses public questions, probabilities, deadlines, outcomes, and Brier-style scores so readers can judge performance over time.
0.25
Coin-flip level
0.16
About 60% and right
0.09
About 70% and right
0.04
About 80% and right
Lower scores are better. The purpose is not to make every forecast sound certain; it is to make uncertainty measurable.