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FoxCast Critical Minerals
Critical Minerals
Critical minerals analysis focused on demand, country concentration, refining, policy, and execution risk.
How to follow Critical Minerals
New briefs and candidate questions are published as they are ready; live scoring starts once the outcome rule is pinned down.
Use paste-ready weekly summaries by lane for email or a group message.
Browse resolved examples so each probability sits next to an outcome and a lesson.
If you have a measurable question, send it with a deadline and what would count as resolved.
Send a questionLatest articles
Readable public analysis for this lane.
A Brazil rare earth deal could matter if it changes real supply, not just headlines.
The announced deal is a useful watch item because it points toward non-China rare earth supply, but the important forecast questions are about closing, ramping, and delivering material volumes.
Copper is a practical bottleneck because it touches power, construction, and equipment.
FoxCast should watch copper through the lens of delays, substitutions, and project economics rather than treating it as a generic commodity story.
Critical minerals matter when demand, refining, and country concentration line up.
The strongest public questions will track materials where demand is rising, processing is concentrated, and buyers cannot easily substitute away from the bottleneck.
Critical minerals risk often starts where mining and refining split apart.
A country may mine a material while another country dominates refining. That split is where policy, logistics, and processing risk can hide.
Critical minerals become useful forecasts when the bottleneck is named.
Copper, rare earths, graphite, lithium, nickel, cobalt, uranium, and semiconductor materials each matter for different reasons. The forecast improves when FoxCast names the specific bottleneck: price, policy, processing, project execution, or customer qualification.
Forecast candidates
Public candidate questions that can become scoreable forecasts after their thresholds are pinned down.
Budgeting, contracting, surcharge clauses, and capex timing for copper-exposed projects.
Graphite export-control expansion
Supplier diversification, inventory buffers, and contract timing for anode-related exposure.
Indonesia nickel policy tightening
Supplier planning, pricing assumptions, and risk reviews for nickel-intensive supply chains.
Inventory buffers, supplier diversification, and downstream contract planning for cobalt exposure.
US strategic minerals procurement action
Project pipeline prioritization, partnership planning, and policy-informed demand expectations.
Non-China rare earth supply ramp
Supplier diversification, offtake planning, and strategic sourcing conversations.
Contract timing, inventory planning, and project economics for battery-exposed businesses.
Uranium and nuclear fuel policy action
Fuel security planning, supplier risk review, and long-horizon energy procurement.
Gallium/germanium control tightening
Supplier diversification, inventory review, production-risk planning, and policy-sensitive procurement.
Antimony supply restriction persistence
Inventory buffers, substitute planning, supplier review, and customer contract language.
Heavy rare earth magnet-input shortage
Supplier qualification, offtake planning, inventory buffers, and production-timing review.
Critical mineral project-delay cluster
Pipeline realism, supplier diversification timing, and strategic sourcing expectations.
Andean copper project disruption risk
Procurement timing, escalation clauses, capital-project assumptions, and supplier-risk review.
Brazil rare earth processing milestone
Supplier diversification, non-China supply timing, offtake planning, and strategic sourcing conversations.