Long-yield persistence threshold did not trigger

As of May 14, 2026, what was the probability the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield would trade at least 25 basis points above its May 14 close for five consecutive trading days before July 31, 2026?

FoxCast

37%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.1369

The required five-session persistence streak above the fixed threshold did not occur before the deadline.

The forecast correctly avoided treating brief yield pressure as a sustained borrowing-cost regime shift, though the 37% probability still records meaningful uncertainty.

Reader takeaway: Persistent thresholds are more trustworthy than reacting to one-day market moves.