Cattle prices did not collapse from herd rebuilding

As of February 1, 2024, what was the probability U.S. cattle prices would fall at least 20% by December 31, 2024 because herd rebuilding increased supply?

FoxCast

19%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.0371

FoxCast kept the probability low because herd rebuilding was not strong enough to make a large supply-driven price collapse likely. Tight cattle supply can persist longer than casual market commentary suggests.

For livestock producers, feed buyers, and lenders, this was a useful no-answer. It warned against assuming a quick herd rebuild would automatically break cattle prices.