Avian flu helped push egg prices to record levels

As of September 15, 2022, what was the probability U.S. wholesale egg prices would reach record highs by December 31, 2022 due to recurring HPAI outbreaks?

FoxCast

71%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.0864

FoxCast gave this a high probability because flock losses and seasonal demand were aligned. Egg supply can tighten quickly when commercial layers are affected.

For food buyers, this is the other side of the 2017 restraint case: disease headlines matter much more when real layer losses are visible.

Reader takeaway: Egg forecasts should separate generic disease concern from commercial-layer supply loss.