India imposed a wheat export restriction after heat stress

As of April 15, 2022, what was the probability India would impose a material wheat export restriction by June 30, 2022?

FoxCast

57%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.1849

FoxCast put this slightly above even odds because domestic heat and food-price pressure were strong enough to challenge export optimism.

For grain buyers, the simple lesson is that export narratives can reverse quickly when domestic affordability and crop stress become politically important.

Reader takeaway: When a major food producer faces domestic heat stress, policy risk deserves attention even if export demand is strong.