Brazil soybean truck strike export risk

As of May 25, 2018, what was the probability Brazil soybean exports would fall at least 20% year over year by August 31, 2018 because of truck-strike disruption?

FoxCast

31%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.0942

FoxCast treated the strike as important but did not make a large export collapse the base case. Logistics disruptions can be painful without lasting long enough to cut the full-season export flow by a large amount.

For grain merchandisers and buyers, the practical lesson is to separate a severe short-term disruption from a season-scale export collapse. Duration and catch-up capacity matter.