Bird-flu concern did not create a new egg price spike

As of March 1, 2017, what was the probability U.S. wholesale egg prices would rise at least 20% by August 31, 2017 due to renewed avian flu concern?

FoxCast

18%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.0317

FoxCast kept the forecast near baseline because disease concern alone was not enough. Egg prices need real commercial-layer supply damage before the probability should rise sharply.

For food buyers, this case says not to price every disease headline as a supply shock. The type of flock, scale of losses, and recovery evidence matter.

Reader takeaway: Watch commercial layer losses and wholesale indexes before treating bird-flu headlines as price-spike evidence.