Egg prices after flock recovery

As of April 1, 2016, what was the probability U.S. wholesale egg prices would rise at least 20% by August 31, 2016 after the 2015 avian flu shock?

FoxCast

19%

Outcome

No

Brier

0.0369

FoxCast kept the probability low because the prior shock had already been absorbed and recovery was underway. A market can remain sensitive without repeating the same price spike.

For food buyers, this is a useful restraint case. The lesson is not to keep pricing every past disaster into the future after the direct supply damage starts to heal.