Farm production expenses surged in 2022

As of March 1, 2022, what was the probability U.S. farm production expenses would rise at least 15% year over year in 2022?

FoxCast

62%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.1459

FoxCast put the risk above even odds because the pressure was broad: fertilizer, fuel, feed, labor, financing, and other operating costs were moving together.

For producers and lenders, this case explains why input forecasting needs a basket view. One cost can matter, but margin stress often comes from several costs arriving together.

Reader takeaway: Input-risk forecasts should watch the whole cost stack, not only the loudest single item.