Fertilizer stayed expensive after the 2022 shock

As of February 25, 2022, what was the probability global fertilizer prices would stay at least 50% above their 2020 average through June 30, 2022?

FoxCast

75%

Outcome

Yes

Brier

0.0615

FoxCast expected fertilizer pressure to persist because the shock was tied to energy, sanctions, export disruption, and affordability at the same time. That combination made a quick return to normal less likely than a simple mean-reversion view would imply.

For farmers, the plain-English takeaway is that fertilizer is not just a fertilizer story. Natural gas, shipping, geopolitics, and producer-country policy can all show up in the price a grower sees before a buying window.

Reader takeaway: The practical move is to watch fertilizer as a connected-input system. If energy, export policy, freight, and affordability are all strained at once, a farmer should avoid assuming the next buying window will automatically look normal.